CSARN / World Reports

JORDAN / Muslim Brotherhood seeks return to Parliamentary politics but without electoral reform unrest could return

The Muslim Brotherhood has taken a number of steps towards a return to Parliamentary politics, which it has boycotted since refusing to participate in the November 2010 elections. It withdrew from the legislature in protest at the electoral system, which favours pro-Government tribes at the expense of urban areas (where the Brotherhood’s support is concentrated). However, in this period it met with representatives of the Government and the Royal Court suggesting serious attempts to resolve its differences with both.

These meetings follow the clash between Brotherhood supporters and pro-Government tribesmen in Mafraq which we reported last time. This undermined relations between the Brotherhood and the recently appointed Prime Minister. It also damaged the already poor relations with the General Intelligence Department (GID, Jordan’s foreign and domestic intelligence service); the Brotherhood claimed that the local GID chief supported the attack. However, he has since been relocated - a significant concession to the Brotherhood, given that the GID is an influential force in Jordan.

JORDAN / Pro-reform protests to continue as key issues unaddressed; rallies fuelled by rising poverty; Islamists may boycott 2012 elections

Pro-reform protests took place in the central Governorates of Balqaa and Madaba, while affected cities included Amman, Jerash, Karak, Irbid and Salt. We expect to see further protests in these areas (usually held on Fridays) since true political reform has not been forthcoming and standards of living remain low. No violence was reported in relation to the protests and the Government is unlikely to react, fearing a popular backlash.  

A recent poll suggests that 33% of a national sample believe improved living conditions are the most pressing political issue, and a majority feels that the Government has failed to support the poor. Projected increases in poverty and unemployment figures will only increase public dissatisfaction and lead to further demonstrations. The Government received its lowest ratings from Karak, Maan and Tafileh. The Southern Governorates are likely to remain particularly tense given their history of protests against the Government and criticism of the King.   

JORDAN / US warning of risk to Jordanian port credible, despite denials aimed at downplaying regional threat from al-Qaeda-linked groups

On 15 September the US embassy in Jordan warned against travelling to the port city of Aqaba “for at least the next 48 hours”, citing “a possible imminent threat in the Gulf of Aqaba region”.  On 11 August the US withdrew a similar advisory warning against travel to the neighbouring Israeli resort of Eilat, but