Elections scheduled to take place in June for the 200-member Constituent Assembly could face postponement due to the Government’s continued inability to maintain security. Two-fifths of the Assembly is to be made up of political associations and laws pertaining to their governance were published in this period which banned religious, regional and tribal platforms in addition to foreign funding. These rules could cause unrest if leading figures or parties are disqualified, especially if the Government acts to limit Islamist presence on the body. Nonetheless, it remains our assessment that the Assembly will be formed essentially along tribal lines with a large Islamist influence and an outright majority remains unlikely.
A change to the election timetable has the potential to cause instability and the National Transitional Council (NTC) so far appears to remain committed to holding the polls in June. Chairman of the NTC, Mustafa Abdul Jalil, has threatened to resign if the Assembly elections are delayed and the council has rejected calls for a change in Government or a Cabinet reshuffle in order to avoid jeopardising the polls. Nonetheless, deteriorating security across Libya, especially in the South, may force a change in the schedule (see our Report of 11 April). In this period, clashes erupted in Kufrah between the Tibu tribe and a Libyan peacekeeping brigade killing two people and wounding four others.