Elections scheduled to take place in June for the 200-member Constituent Assembly could face postponement due to the Government’s continued inability to maintain security. Two-fifths of the Assembly is to be made up of political associations and laws pertaining to their governance were published in this period which banned religious, regional and tribal platforms in addition to foreign funding. These rules could cause unrest if leading figures or parties are disqualified, especially if the Government acts to limit Islamist presence on the body. Nonetheless, it remains our assessment that the Assembly will be formed essentially along tribal lines with a large Islamist influence and an outright majority remains unlikely.
A change to the election timetable has the potential to cause instability and the National Transitional Council (NTC) so far appears to remain committed to holding the polls in June. Chairman of the NTC, Mustafa Abdul Jalil, has threatened to resign if the Assembly elections are delayed and the council has rejected calls for a change in Government or a Cabinet reshuffle in order to avoid jeopardising the polls. Nonetheless, deteriorating security across Libya, especially in the South, may force a change in the schedule (see our Report of 11 April). In this period, clashes erupted in Kufrah between the Tibu tribe and a Libyan peacekeeping brigade killing two people and wounding four others.
On 6 April the newly-formed Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) accused the security forces of abducting two political leaders, Premkumar Gunaratham and Dimuthu Attygalle, in the capital. Gunaratham has Australian citizenship and so Canberra quickly put pressure on Colombo to determine his whereabouts. This adds to the growing international attention on such abductions, which are not uncommon in Sri Lanka. The most recent UN Human Rights Council session noted that 19 people have disappeared in 2012, while the US Embassy has asked about 30 cases. The opposition has credibly accused the security forces of being behind the abductions.
The two FSP leaders were “found” in Colombo on 9 April and Gunaratham has since been deported back to Australia, most likely because of the pressure from Canberra. Both have blamed the security forces, and stated that they were asked about their group’s funding, international support, future plans and ties to the Tamil diaspora. These questions illustrate Colombo’s ongoing concerns about internal opposition and a possible Tamil Tiger resurgence. Most abductions occur in the North, but this incident serves as a reminder that there is also a risk in the capital. Furthermore, there is also a precedent for employees of international organisations to be targeted, as in 2007 two ethnic Tamil Red Cross workers were abducted and killed in Colombo, likely by the security forces.
On 4 March the leader of the Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea, escaped a sophisticated assassination attempt when two shots fired by a sniper (or snipers) just missed him outside his residence in Maarab, north of Beirut. No one has been arrested following the attack, but it is highly likely it was carried out at the behest of Damascus.
Geagea is an important part of the pro-Western March 14 opposition which has challenged the Government’s support for the Assad regime in Syria. His militia represents a significant military capability and we believe he is involved in smuggling arms to the Syrian rebels. Jordan has moved to crack down on arms transfers, and so more weapons destined for the Free Syrian Army (FSA) will now be transported via Lebanon. With Arab and Gulf states increasingly calling for the arming of the Syrian opposition, the importance of Lebanon as a transit route for weapons to the rebels is likely to continue to rise. As such, it is likely that Geagea was targeted for his support – both actual and potential – for the FSA.
