The US in this period agreed to sell Saudi Arabia USD 29.6 billion of arms – its largest ever export deal. Amongst other items, Riyadh will acquire 84 of the latest model of F-15 jets and upgrades for 70 more. The F-15 is an aging platform but one whose range and payload means it would be of use in a future conflict with Iran. Given current tensions between Iran, on one side, and Gulf countries and the US on the other, this deal was likely intended to put further pressure on Tehran. However, delivery of the aircraft will not begin until 2015, meaning that it has purely symbolic importance for now.
Meanwhile, Iranian media alleged major splits between Saudi Arabia and Qatar in this period – including fanciful claims that Qatar is preparing to occupy Saudi territory. The two Sunni monarchies compete for regional influence and have historically had a troubled relationship, not least over Doha-based broadcaster al-Jazeera’s criticisms of the Saudi royal family. Moreover, Tehran’s relations with Doha have traditionally been much warmer than those with Riyadh. A degree of disagreement is, therefore, credible. However, these latest reports come shortly after the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) rebuked Iran for interfering in member states’ internal affairs. Tehran therefore appears to be exaggerating existing Qatar-Riyadh tensions in an attempt to split the GCC at this key moment, although there is no evidence that this is working at present.
Finally, increased regional sectarianism and tensions with Iran led to yet more protests in the Shia-majority Eastern Province in this period. The authorities’ decision to launch at least three separate crackdowns in the area – a reaction to fears of Iranian meddling and recent violence in the area (discussed in our 25 November Report) – provoked further demonstrations. Such disturbances therefore seem certain to continue, not least after unconfirmed Iranian press reports suggested that security forces killed a Shia protester on 12 January.
