The Muslim Brotherhood has taken a number of steps towards a return to Parliamentary politics, which it has boycotted since refusing to participate in the November 2010 elections. It withdrew from the legislature in protest at the electoral system, which favours pro-Government tribes at the expense of urban areas (where the Brotherhood’s support is concentrated). However, in this period it met with representatives of the Government and the Royal Court suggesting serious attempts to resolve its differences with both.
These meetings follow the clash between Brotherhood supporters and pro-Government tribesmen in Mafraq which we reported last time. This undermined relations between the Brotherhood and the recently appointed Prime Minister. It also damaged the already poor relations with the General Intelligence Department (GID, Jordan’s foreign and domestic intelligence service); the Brotherhood claimed that the local GID chief supported the attack. However, he has since been relocated - a significant concession to the Brotherhood, given that the GID is an influential force in Jordan.
The Brotherhood has not protested for more than two weeks, suggesting that some trust has been restored. Moreover, the Shura Council of Jordan’s Brotherhood has granted independence to the movement’s foreign branches, which have had strong ties to Jordan’s wing. This is because they also have a close relationship with Hamas and the Brotherhood in Jordan is seeking to appear to distance itself from the Palestinian faction. This is an attempt to bolster the Brotherhood’s support within Jordan – including amongst the tribes – by demonstrating apparent independence from foreign influences. However, in reality close ties with Hamas will persist, given the large Palestinian population in Jordan.
However, there are several issues that could undermine the Brotherhood’s embryonic steps towards Parliamentary participation, in particular any lack of reciprocal gesture by the Government to reform the electoral system. Without such a concession, it is likely that the Brotherhood will reject the political process and return to protests this year. Nonetheless, any unrest is unlikely to pose a major threat to the Kingdom’s stability, given the failure of demonstrations to force major reforms in 2011.
