CSARN / World Reports

CSARN World Reports are supplied by Stirling Assynt, a global intelligence network with offices in London and Hong Kong run by a team with significant government and commercial sector experience.

www.stirlingassynt.com

BANGLADESH / Five dead in country-wide protests; tension and violence likely to increase before planned opposition rally on 12 March

In a sign of escalating friction, a BNP march in Dhaka continued a day after police imposed a temporary ban on rallies there and in four other cities. More protests took place on 30 and 31 January resulting in the deaths five BNP and JeI activists in Laxmipur, Chandpur and Rajshahi and the arrests of 1,958 opposition supporters. BNP leader Khaleda Zia led a march on 1 February to mourn those killed and blamed Hasina. Tension between the BNP and the ruling Awami League (AL) is likely to increase with the opposition striving to forge a united anti-Government movement ahead of a rally on 12 March in Dhaka.

BANGLADESH / Army confirms banned Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahir involved with planned coup; Hasina increases pressure on opposition and Islamists

Members of the banned Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahir (HuT) were arrested in Dhaka, Rajshahi, Comilla, and Jessore as the army confirmed the Islamist element of failed coup (reported last time) and pointed the finger directly at HuT. As expected, Prime Minister Hasina has used the attempted coup to bolster her hand for a crackdown on Islamists. A proportion of those arrested had been apprehended previously and were known to the authorities. This reinforces our view that the actions are predominantly political and it is an attempt to discredit the Islamists and to link the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) with the coup. At present, we do not believe that the BNP or its ally the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeL) party were involved.

The main suspect in the attempted coup, Major Zia ul-Haq, is still at large.  One of the alleged co-conspirators, Ishraq Ahmed, is understood to have fled to Britain. We are aware of connections between HuT’s operations in Bangladesh and the UK, and so the story of him fleeing to the UK appears credible.

JORDAN / Muslim Brotherhood seeks return to Parliamentary politics but without electoral reform unrest could return

The Muslim Brotherhood has taken a number of steps towards a return to Parliamentary politics, which it has boycotted since refusing to participate in the November 2010 elections. It withdrew from the legislature in protest at the electoral system, which favours pro-Government tribes at the expense of urban areas (where the Brotherhood’s support is concentrated). However, in this period it met with representatives of the Government and the Royal Court suggesting serious attempts to resolve its differences with both.

These meetings follow the clash between Brotherhood supporters and pro-Government tribesmen in Mafraq which we reported last time. This undermined relations between the Brotherhood and the recently appointed Prime Minister. It also damaged the already poor relations with the General Intelligence Department (GID, Jordan’s foreign and domestic intelligence service); the Brotherhood claimed that the local GID chief supported the attack. However, he has since been relocated - a significant concession to the Brotherhood, given that the GID is an influential force in Jordan.

BRAZIL / Government confirms five new dams in Amazon; sites likely to become new source of grievances for environmental, other activists

President Dilma Rousseff has announced plans for the construction of five new dams along the Tapajós River in the Amazon state of Pará. The sites are near to the cities of São Luiz do Tapajós, Jatobá, Jamanxim, Cachoeira do Caí and Cachoeira dos Patos. Controversially, the Government will reduce the area of three Amazonian national parks and four other conservation zones in Pará to allow for construction work.

Energy and Mining Minister Edison Lobão has stressed that new approaches and technology will minimise the environmental impact of the Tapajós dams. Most notably, these plans include flying in equipment and construction crews by helicopter to avoid building roads through the forest. Dam crews will also be housed in oil rig-like structures on the water once the projects are complete. Despite such mitigating measures and pledges to re-forest areas affected by construction, the environmental impact is still likely to be significant.

SAUDI ARABIA - IRAN / Largest ever US arms deal with single country will pressure Iran; Tehran tries to exploit Doha-Riyadh disagreements; protests in East

The US in this period agreed to sell Saudi Arabia USD 29.6 billion of arms – its largest ever export deal. Amongst other items, Riyadh will acquire 84 of the latest model of F-15 jets and upgrades for 70 more. The F-15 is an aging platform but one whose range and payload means it would be of use in a future conflict with Iran. Given current tensions between Iran, on one side, and Gulf countries and the US on the other, this deal was likely intended to put further pressure on Tehran. However, delivery of the aircraft will not begin until 2015, meaning that it has purely symbolic importance for now.

Meanwhile, Iranian media alleged major splits between Saudi Arabia and Qatar in this period – including fanciful claims that Qatar is preparing to occupy Saudi territory. The two Sunni monarchies compete for regional influence and have historically had a troubled relationship, not least over Doha-based broadcaster al-Jazeera’s criticisms of the Saudi royal family. Moreover, Tehran’s relations with Doha have traditionally been much warmer than those with Riyadh. A degree of disagreement is, therefore, credible. However, these latest reports come shortly after the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) rebuked Iran for interfering in member states’ internal affairs. Tehran therefore appears to be exaggerating existing Qatar-Riyadh tensions in an attempt to split the GCC at this key moment, although there is no evidence that this is working at present.

UK - KENYA / UK's Jermaine Grant charged over Kenyan bomb plot

A 29-year-old British man has been charged in Kenya with possessing illegal explosive-making material and plotting to explode a bomb.

Jermaine Grant and his three Kenyan co-accused denied the charges.

Mr Grant, arrested in Mombasa last month, has already been jailed for a year for being in Kenya illegally.

Earlier this week, police spokesman Eric Kiraithe told the BBC that he was being questioned about possible links to the Somali Islamist group al-Shabab.

RUSSIA / Putin takes belligerent stance as protests continue; Kremlin seeks to capitalise on popular movement’s lack of established leadership

Protests across Russia have shown no sign of abating in this period, as thousands have continued to attend weekly rallies organised by opposition parties. Moreover, on 24 December tens of thousands took to the streets to protest over last month’s disputed Parliamentary elections, dealing a blow to President Medvedev who had announced a series of concessions on the eve of the rally (see below). The significant turnout raises the possibility that such demonstrations could continue to build momentum in the lead up to the March Presidential elections. Indeed, the next rally has already been scheduled for 4 February.

The leaders of opposition parties and prominent figures such as the popular anti-corruption blogger Aleksey Navalny are actively involved in organising the rallies but the movement still lacks an established leadership. Putin has seized on this vulnerability as an excuse to reject calls to hold talks with the protesters. In contrast to Medvedev’s compromising stance, Putin appears out of touch with the situation and has repeatedly riled protesters, most recently describing them as “chattering monkeys”. His belligerence suggests that he does not feel sufficiently threatened to begin a dialogue with the nascent movement so long as it is without an established leadership.

AFGHANISTAN / Blasts at Shia ceremonies in Kabul, Mazar-e-Sharif and Kandahar kill over 60; Pakistan-based group with sectarian agenda claims attacks

At least 60 people were killed when a suicide bomber attacked Kabul’s Abul Fazl shrine, close to the Presidential palace, during celebrations for the Shia festival of Ashura on 6 December. Shortly afterwards, a bomb exploded near the main Shia mosque in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif, killing four and injuring many more. A second device placed nearby (probably to target first responders) was defused. Another bomb, this time in Kandahar, injured three at another Ashura ceremony, although the local police later claimed that it was not related to the Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif explosions.

A group calling itself Lashkar-e-Jhangvi al-Almi claimed the Kabul attack, noting that it was an offshoot of the Pakistan-based group Lashkar-e Jhangvi (LeJ, which has demonstrated a sectarian agenda). The Taliban quickly and categorically condemned the bombings and called on Shia religious and political leaders to prevent any sectarian enmity. The unambiguous nature of the Taliban statement suggests that it is unlikely that any group affiliated with the movement (al-Qaeda, for example, recognises Taliban leader Mullah Omar as the ultimate leader of the global jihad movement) was involved. Furthermore, the Taliban is largely non-sectarian, unlike its counterpart in Pakistan and al-Qaeda, in large part because one of its principal goals is to win public support (despite the collateral casualties that it causes).

YEMEN / New Prime Minister appointed, but unity Government will be challenged by armed opposition groups and ongoing protests

Vice President Hadi appointed Mohammed Basindwa as the new interim Prime Minister who will lead the country until Presidential elections on 21 February 2012. Basindwa, a former Foreign Minister, left the ruling General People’s Congress (GPC) ten years ago to stand as an Independent. The GPC and the Joint Meetings Party (JMP) have now agreed the formation of an interim Government which will be sworn in on 10 December. Each side will have 17 Ministries. The GPC will retain the Ministries of Defence, Foreign and Oil, while the JMP will be responsible for the Interior, Information and Finance.

The GPC and JMP have signalled that they are prepared to work together by acting quickly to enforce the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) deal signed in November and dividing the Ministries evenly. However it is significant that the GPC retains control of the Ministry of Defence and therefore the armed forces. The JMP is expected to demand an end to violence against the protesters, but GPC’s control of the military allows the JMP to distance itself from any responsibility for the Army’s actions.

PAKISTAN / US air strike on Pakistani forces prompts drastic response from Islamabad; Washington denied access to drone campaign air base

US-Pakistani relations have suffered another setback in the wake of NATO air strikes on 26 November which killed 25 Pakistani troops at two observation posts in Mohmand Agency in the Tribal Areas. Islamabad disputes claims that the attack was provoked when a joint Afghan-US Special Forces team operating in Kunar Province was fired on from positions inside Pakistan. The Army has acknowledged that NATO informed the Pakistani authorities of alleged firing across the border before the air strikes were called in, but denies that any shooting originated from inside Pakistan.

Unlike previous disputes between the two administrations – such as the circumstances in which Osama bin Laden was killed and the attack on the US Embassy in Kabul in September – Islamabad has the upper hand in this row. Prime Minister Gilani declared that “business as usual” with the US would be suspended, senior officers described the incident as a “deliberate act of aggression” and the US Ambassador issued a public apology. There have also been popular demonstrations in all the major cities in an outpouring of public hostility towards the US.