CSARN / World Reports

CSARN World Reports are supplied by Stirling Assynt, a global intelligence network with offices in London and Hong Kong run by a team with significant government and commercial sector experience.

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INDONESIA / Police raids in Jakarta, across Java foil plots against Myanmar Embassy; demonstrates continued, low-level jihadist threat

On 2 May police apprehended two alleged jihadists carrying pipe bombs travelling on Jakarta’s main thoroughfare, Jalan Sudirman. Explosives and bomb-making equipment were subsequently discovered at their rented house in the Kemang area of Jakarta. Subsequently, on 8-9 May the police anti-terrorism squad Densus 88 carried out raids against suspected jihadists in seven locations in West and Central Java. Densus 88 claims that seven suspects were killed following gun battles in Kebumen and Batang, Central Java and Cigondewah, West Java. Thirteen people have been detained and small arms, pipe bombs and other explosives were found at several of the locations.

There are plausible but unconfirmed reports that both sets of suspected jihadists were plotting an attack against the Myanmar Embassy and the two groups may therefore be directly linked. The choice of target reflects the growing international prominence of Myanmar’s sectarian violence between the Muslim Rohingya minority and the Buddhist majority (see our recent Myanmar reporting). Indeed, our 14 September Indonesia Report indicated that militants in Depok, south-west of Jakarta were planning on attacking Buddhists, likely as a response to the anti-Muslim violence in Myanmar. The relatively poor security around the Myanmar Embassy, compared to Western embassies, may also have been a factor in the choice of target.

PAKISTAN / Taliban violence continues ahead of 11 May election; Sharif victory increasingly likely; legitimacy of result may be contested

Taliban attacks on the secular-leaning Muttahida Quami Movement, Pakistani People’s Party and Awami National Party have continued ahead of legislative elections scheduled for 11 May. Most incidents have occurred in Karachi and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (where the group’s capabilities are strongest), but they have had the effect of restricting campaigning nationwide. We expect the attacks to continue until the vote is held and indeed believe that recent statements made by the Taliban calling for a boycott of the vote means that the group will seek to target polling stations nationwide on Election Day.

Recent polling has suggested that the Pakistani Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) is set to dominate the ballot, with its leader Nawaz Sharif seeming the most plausible post-election Prime Minister. The party has not been subject to the same level of Taliban threat, largely because when in opposition, it was not an advocate of military operations in the Tribal Areas and it promoted opening a dialogue with the group. Nonetheless the PML-N is unlikely to win an outright majority and so will likely need to broker a coalition following the polls. This could potentially delay the formation of the new Cabinet, which in turn could promote economic and political disorder (see below).

Regional / Mali intervention drives regional anti-French sentiment, strengthens African jihadists

In the meantime, Paris’s intervention in Mali continues to stoke anti-French sentiment throughout the region. For example, today’s Qatar Report discusses the case of two Islamists who sent a threatening letter to the French Embassy in Doha in response to Paris’s actions. Similarly, our 23 April Special Report discussed that day’s bombing of the French Embassy in Tripoli. On the same day, shots were fired near the French Embassy in Sanaa. Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQM) had previously threatened to target the interests of nations which have participated in the military action in Mali. Regional states which participate in MINUSMA face a particular threat, though French interests will likely remain the primary target.

Meanwhile, President Francois Hollande’s plans to widen France’s existing “burqa ban” are likely to anger many Muslims. Indeed, al-Qaeda has already cited the existing legislation in its propaganda as a justification for targeting France. There is therefore a risk of further protests and even attacks (including kidnappings) against French interests throughout the Islamic world, particularly in jihadist fronts like the Sahel or Afghanistan/Pakistan.

Finally, both al-Qaeda’s central leadership and AQM are capitalising on the intervention in Mali for their propaganda, fuelling the growth of jihadist groups in Africa. For example, recent major clashes in Northern Nigeria involving the local group Boko Haram and both Nigerian and Chadian forces have killed at least 37 people, suggesting that Nigerian militants are growing in confidence, at least in part due to the situation in Mali.

PHILIPPINES / Moro group warns of insurgent campaign as more fighters travel to Sabah; peace talks disrupted by dispute

The Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) has claimed that a further 1,000 fighters have travelled to Sabah in small groups to support the followers of Sultan Jamalul Kiram III. They have been engaged in clashes with the Malaysian armed forces since the self-styled Royal Army of the Sultanate of Sulu landed on the eastern coast of Sabah in early February. Whilst the figure of 1,000 fighters is most likely political exaggeration, Kuala Lumpur has acknowledged that small groups of armed supporters may have circumvented the naval cordon to support Filipino fighters in Sabah loyal to Jamalul (see this week’s Malaysia Report).

President Aquino repeated his criticism of the Sultan's followers for the incursion into Sabah and, in a statement clearly aimed at MNLF leadership, hinted at hidden financial backers being responsible for prolonging the standoff. Meanwhile, the MNLF warned of a “long, protracted war” against Malaysia if Kuala Lumpur fails to heed UN calls for a peaceful resolution of the crisis. In an attempt to seek further advantage, the MNLF central committee said it would also petition the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation following cases of human-rights violations allegedly committed by Malaysian forces.

ISRAEL-PALESTINE / Coalition Government likely to institute austerity measures to tackle deficit; progress on Palestinian peace process unlikely

Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the formation of a coalition Government on 14 March. The Likud-Yisrael Beitenu bloc formed an alliance with Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party and Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home party in addition to the previously announced partnership with Tzipi Livni’s Hatnuah party. The ruling coalition retains 68 seats out of 120 in the Knesset.

Lapid was appointed Finance Minister and he is likely to institute austerity measures to tackle the budget deficit. The Cabinet extended the deadline to pass the budget from 45 days after the formation of the Government to 135 days. During his election campaign, Lapid argued for the introduction of universal conscription and the removal of state benefits for religious groups. Such measures are likely to be controversial, given that the ultra-orthodox parties are in the opposition for the first time in decades. There is a risk of street protests against such measures.

MYANMAR / Aung San Suu Kyi-led report into crackdown on protest against mine sparks anger amid controversy within her party

An investigation, headed by opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, into a crackdown by security forces on protesters at the controversial Letpadaung copper mine in northern Myanmar, has recommended that work continue on expanding the site. The decision has created a backlash from locals who point to further environmental damage and forced relocation of local people if the mine continues to be developed. The report’s unpopular findings have meant that Suu Kyi has become the target of protests for the first time.

The Letpadaung mine is part of the larger Monywa copper mining site in Sagaing Division – the biggest and most lucrative of Myanmar’s mines, which is run by Wanbao, a subsidiary of the Chinese weapons giant Norinco. A crackdown in November 2012 against locals protesting against the mine, when phosphorus was used against the demonstrators, reflects pressure on the Government to protect Chinese interests in the country following Beijing’s anger at the suspension of the Myitsone Dam. Nonetheless, Suu Kyi’s report acknowledges that the mine brings only marginal benefit to locals.

SYRIA / US and UK to provide non-lethal assistance to armed rebels; impact limited although West may consider supplying weapons

Washington and London have both announced their intent to give non-lethal assistance to armed rebel groups for the first time. The US has offered USD 60 million of food and medical supplies while the UK will provide armoured vehicles and body armour. US Secretary of State John Kerry justified this change in Washington’s stance by claiming that the risk of material supplied to “the moderate, legitimate opposition” being obtained by jihadists has fallen. This comes amid growing reports that the US and UK are helping to coordinate arms supplies and training for non-Islamist opposition elements (see today’s Jordan Report).

Britain has since stated that it may not abide by an EU embargo on selling arms to any Syrian groups, which we discussed last time. However, Western support for the rebels is likely to have only a limited immediate impact on the conflict since Riyadh and Doha have been providing arms for some time. Moreover, other nations such as Germany remain wary of supplying weaponry due to fears about the rebels’ lack of unity and the influence of Islamist and jihadist fighters. Indeed, there are growing reports of Islamists and jihadists establishing Sharia committees to enforce law and order in rebel-controlled areas. Some EU nations also want to avoid alienating Damascus’s Russian allies. Nonetheless, it is increasingly plausible that Western nations will start to arm non-Islamist and non-jihadist elements of the opposition.

TURKEY / Talks with Kurdish rebels progress, with credible rumours of a ceasefire; parties committed but serious obstacles remain

On 23 February imprisoned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan met with three politicians from the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP). Such a meeting had previously been rejected by the Government, and it occurred only after the BDP adjusted its proposed delegation to accommodate Ankara’s demands, highlighting the difficulties that talks still face. Ocalan used the discussions to pass a message to the PKK urging it to consider releasing captive soldiers and public officials. There are also credible rumours that he will call for a ceasefire next month.

A ceasefire would mark significant – but not unprecedented – progress toward ending the Kurdish insurgency. President Erdogan has indicated that peace talks would only advance once the rebels implemented a ceasefire and withdrew from Turkish territory. Ocalan maintains continued authority over the Kurdish movement, despite his long imprisonment. Consequently, any direction to the PKK to release captives, or a ceasefire declaration, would have significant support from the group’s members.

However, many obstacles to peace remain. The main opposition Republican People's Party and the Nationalist Movement Party have alleged that the peace talks are an effort to secure the support of the pro-Kurdish BDP to pass controversial constitutional reforms (see below). Regardless of whether the claims are true, they risk derailing the negotiations by raising doubts about the sincerity of the Government’s efforts. It is possible that Kurdish representatives may also see the talks as a ploy by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and refuse to continue discussions. 

Nevertheless, we believe that both sides are genuinely committed to the peace process. Ankara has amended the law to narrow the definition of terrorist propaganda, which could lead to the release of some Kurdish activists detained under the old law. Furthermore, a court in Diyarbakir released ten Kurds who had been imprisoned for three years over their alleged involvement with a banned Kurdish group. In addition, the 15 February anniversary of Ocalan’s 1999 capture passed without the large-scale pre-emptive arrests that marked last year’s anniversary, although expected clashes did break out in several towns in the country’s south-east, and two buses were burnt by rioters in Istanbul.

Talks will progress, albeit slowly, despite provocations by opponents on both sides. For example, on 18 and 19 February an ultra-nationalist youth group with alleged ties to the nationalist opposition violently protested against the presence of BDP members promoting the peace process in towns near the Black Sea. Moreover, on 21 February the Turkish Air Force bombed PKK sites in northern Iraq. Hard-line elements within the PKK could also seek to derail the nascent peace process by conducting bombings or assassinations against Turkish or moderate Kurdish targets. However, unless there is a serious incident, the peace talks are likely to continue.

THAILAND / Sixteen militants killed in attack on military base publicly mourned by Muslim villagers; Government to end State of Emergency in South

On 13 February between 50 and 80 militants attacked a military base in Narathiwat Province, the first time a base has been targeted since March 2012. The attackers failed to breach the perimeter security and sixteen were killed while the marines in the base only suffered minor casualties. Following the attack, a 24-hour curfew was declared in six villages of Narathiwat and Pattani Province and security forces rounded up several suspected insurgents. The militants responded over the following days with a series of bomb and arson attacks in Pattani, killing three and destroying ten buildings including a local supermarket.

Two days after the attack, a short video of the funeral of those killed was posted on YouTube. It showed a large group of Muslim villagers passing the insurgents’ shrouded bodies along by hand. On the same day the National Security Council (NSC) rejected an unpopular proposal by Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung to impose a curfew throughout the region. On 18 February, the NSC then announced that the Government would replace the State of Emergency, which has been in place in most districts of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat Provinces since 2005, with the Internal Security Act (ISA). Under the ISA, defendants will have greater access to the judicial process and it is a less draconian instrument than the State of Emergency. 

LEBANON / Hizballah responsible for bombing in Bulgaria last year; likely ordered by radical elements in Iran

A Bulgarian Government investigation into the bombing of a bus in Burgas in July 2012 has implicated Hizballah. Five Israeli tourists, the bus driver and the suspected bomber were killed (see our Special Report of 19 July 2012). The attack initially appeared to be a suicide bombing, which had raised doubts about the involvement of Hizballah or Tehran, since such tactics would be unusual for them, in contrast to jihadist groups. However, the Bulgarian investigators believe that the perpetrator did not intend to die in the attack.

Hizballah would not have conducted an attack on Israeli targets without specific instructions from Tehran. We believe that elements within the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) who are benefiting from continued sanctions against Tehran are most likely to have ordered the bombing. The attack may have been an attempt to derail international talks on Iran’s nuclear programme, which were making progress at the time.